Some people believe in facts, others believe in their gut, both are equally annoying, but only one is usually right. I'm getting tired of trying to explain to certain people I know, who still think this will just magically blow over, that it is actually more likely to blow through than over. I suspect that some people have relinquished their critical thinking skills to whichever talking head they last heard on TV, so its hard to get them to kickstart that part of their mind, but still worth the effort when you care about them.
Anyway, I read this back on March 12, which I was going to recheck on April 30th to try and have an objective gauge of how we responded to this mess, based on what we knew going into it. But was bored today and I decided to check it, and it's pretty clear we are likely to see the low "Degree of surveillance and intervention" scenario they considered back on March 12 (with currently ~ 213,600 cases today, on April 3). It will very likely be worse thanks to the several weeks (wasted) that it took for some states to even muster the courage for a limp response, by mandating stay at home orders (with plenty of loopholes of course). It will probably be several more weeks for these geniuses to move to close the many exceptions and do what has to be done (likely only after the public pressure forces their hand). Seeing the sloppy response is like watching a toddler who refuses to take their medicine and ends up getting half of it all over their shirt, but that's what passes for leadership in 2020.
A footnote on that Times article - it states that the model "will continue to be updated as the model adapts once more is known about the virus’ behavior". However the numbers for the Low, Moderate and High "Degree of surveillance and intervention" scenarios have not changed since March 12 (so it seems like that interactive graphic is a bit of a time capsule).
So that's all I am gonna post/rant about Covid19 in this tiny random corner of the Interwebs for a while. It's too sad to think about or dwell on this slow motion train wreck the world is experiencing. Soon it will be back to 3D printing stuff and other useless and more random stuff, once I get my printers running again.
Update: On April 30, there were approx 1.1M confirmed cases of COVID-19, which is just lower than the "low" surveillance and intervention number of 1,382,926 given by the model described in the article from March 12. A low-moderate number was 795,593 infections. So we got a D- according to the model, maybe we will do better next time.
Anyway, I read this back on March 12, which I was going to recheck on April 30th to try and have an objective gauge of how we responded to this mess, based on what we knew going into it. But was bored today and I decided to check it, and it's pretty clear we are likely to see the low "Degree of surveillance and intervention" scenario they considered back on March 12 (with currently ~ 213,600 cases today, on April 3). It will very likely be worse thanks to the several weeks (wasted) that it took for some states to even muster the courage for a limp response, by mandating stay at home orders (with plenty of loopholes of course). It will probably be several more weeks for these geniuses to move to close the many exceptions and do what has to be done (likely only after the public pressure forces their hand). Seeing the sloppy response is like watching a toddler who refuses to take their medicine and ends up getting half of it all over their shirt, but that's what passes for leadership in 2020.
A footnote on that Times article - it states that the model "will continue to be updated as the model adapts once more is known about the virus’ behavior". However the numbers for the Low, Moderate and High "Degree of surveillance and intervention" scenarios have not changed since March 12 (so it seems like that interactive graphic is a bit of a time capsule).
So that's all I am gonna post/rant about Covid19 in this tiny random corner of the Interwebs for a while. It's too sad to think about or dwell on this slow motion train wreck the world is experiencing. Soon it will be back to 3D printing stuff and other useless and more random stuff, once I get my printers running again.
Update: On April 30, there were approx 1.1M confirmed cases of COVID-19, which is just lower than the "low" surveillance and intervention number of 1,382,926 given by the model described in the article from March 12. A low-moderate number was 795,593 infections. So we got a D- according to the model, maybe we will do better next time.
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